Recent developments in diplomacy and defense reveal a deepening crisis of significance for Europe. Far from fulfilling the aspirations of its citizens, the EU is increasingly incapable of asserting its sovereignty or crafting a coherent strategy in a rapidly changing world. This is evident in its dependence on the United States for security, its lack of unity on trade policy, and its political subservience to external powers.
A striking example came before and during NATO’s 75th anniversary summit, where former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte—now Secretary General of NATO—publicly lavished praise on Donald Trump in what many viewed as an embarrassing display of cringeworthy obsequiousness. Rutte’s tone resembled that of a supplicant hoping to appease a capricious overlord, even extending his role into matters of each member-country’s economic policy when he has no such mandate, but with little pushback.
This subordination is particularly troubling in defense. While EU leaders repeatedly claim they cannot face Russia without U.S. support, the numbers tell a different story. As economist Thomas Piketty has pointed out, the combined defense spending of EU member states far exceeds that of Russia, even without factoring in NATO’s decision for members to allocate 5% of GDP to defense. What is lacking is a unified command and common European military procurement.
On economic matters, too, the EU appears unwilling to stand up to U.S. pressure, despite Paul Krugman’s point about Europe being in a strong position to ignore Trump’s threats and counter them. Trump’s tariffs seem to go practically unchallenged by bureaucrats whose only function it seems is to avoid rocking the boat even if this means subservience. The Trump administration, for example, bizarrely claims that a deal for a minimum corporate tax of 15% across developed western countries that was agreed upon and is now a EU directive is “a trade barrier” – and the EU is rushing to accommodate him. Meanwhile, Washington’s open threats and provocative gestures—from discussions about purchasing Greenland to talk of annexation of Canada—go largely unchallenged by European leaders.
This creepy and creeping political dependency raises fundamental questions about Europe’s future. If the EU continues on this path, it risks devolving into a fragmented patchwork of vassal states, coerced into wavering around American, Russian or Chinese interests rather than its own democratic principles. But it should be clear that the only way that Europe can aspire to be a bulwark for international law and peace, a polity taking care of its citizens and remain democratic, is through the creation of a European state that can withstand all pressures military or economic.
The alternative is difficult to plan but necessary: a true political federation with robust democratic legitimacy. The creation of a unified European political stage. Only through shared institutions, common sovereignty, and direct citizen participation can Europe reclaim its autonomy, improve its standing and speak with one voice on the global stage. Without this transformation, the continent’s future will be authoritarian, declining and subservient, a string of vassal states attached to a superpower and susceptible to developments over it will have no agency.